@conference {40643,
	title = {Variable animal performance and farm diversification},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the New Zealand Society of Animal Production},
	volume = {54},
	year = {1994},
	month = {Jan},
	pages = {399-402},
	publisher = {New Zealand Society of Animal Production},
	organization = {New Zealand Society of Animal Production},
	abstract = {Distributions of gross margins of breeding ewe, breeding cattle and  
plantation forestry enterprises were used in a linear programming model of a  
651 ha Taranaki hill country pastoral farm to determine the mix of enterprises  
that maximised expected net farm revenue for given levels of downside risk.   
Risk was specified as the mean negative deviation of farm revenue from an  
assumed target income of $180,000. 
 
Animal performance variables used in estimating gross margins included  
(mean, minimum, maximum) (a) lambing percentage (92, 87, 99), (b) wool  
weight-kg per stock unit (5.4, 5.1, 5.8), (c) calving percentage (85, 83, 88)  
and (d) bull beef carcass weight-kg (229, 208, 247). 
 
The enterprise mix of 250 ha forestry and 3,791 stock units of bull beef yielded  
an optimum expected net farm revenue of $497,591 with little or no downside  
risk.  Breeding ewe and breeding cow enterprises did not contribute to the  
optimum enterprise mix. 
 
Using a sheep/cattle ratio of 70/30 stock units, the expected net farm revenue  
reduced to $348,884.  The optimum enterprise mix, with this ratio, was 310 ha  
forestry and 3,310 stock units of bull beef and sheep.  The model predicted that  
it would be possible to increase the expected net farm revenue to a maximum  
of $362,923 by increasing the acceptable downside risk and the area allocated  
to forestry. },
	issn = {1176-5283},
	author = {Dake CKG}
}
