Abstract

High variability in number of embryos collected per donor has implications when programming recipients for `fresh` embryo transfer because decisions on the number of recipients required need to be made prior to collecting embryos. This paper describes a methodology for dealing with these uncertainties. The distribution of number of transferable quality embryos per donor was determined and conformed to a Poisson distribution. The distribution of the proportion of recipients that are suitable for transfer was assumed to be binomial. The model determined recipient numbers under 4 contrasting risk scenarios, and compared these with a simple arithmetic approach. The simple arithmetic approach is likely to expose programmes to high levels of risk. The proposed methodology enables practitioners to programme the number of recipients that is consistent with any level of risk they are prepared to take in having surplus embryos or recipients. The model could be extended to provide economic or utility maximisation endpoints.

WH, McMillan, and HW Vivanco

Proceedings of the New Zealand Society of Animal Production, Volume 59, , 226-228, 1999